San Francisco and California Ballot Backstory · Why is this on my ballot?
Prop 38: summary
Authorizes Bonds for Immunology Medical Research
Mark your own choices here. You may bring this sheet into the voting booth.
A YES vote means
The state could sell an $8.4 billion bond for immune system research. About half goes to one research institute and half to research grants.
A NO vote means
No $8.4 billion bond or $500 million to $600 million yearly repayment (LAO estimate). No institute, grant council or (generally) 20 percent California patient discount.
Both ovals are empty on purpose. The choice is yours.
If it fails
Nothing changes if it fails
If Prop 38 fails, the state does not gain authority to issue this $8.4 billion bond. The Legislative Analyst says companies and government agencies are major funders of medical research. Supporters say federal cuts are disrupting research; opponents say the normal budget process should set priorities.
Why it’s on the ballot now
Immunology is the study of the body's immune system. Immunotherapy builds treatments that help the immune system fight disease better.
U.S. medical research funding totaled about $300 billion in 2023. Companies and government agencies, such as the National Institutes of Health, are the major funding sources.
California voters approved two earlier bond measures, Prop 71 (2004) and Prop 14 (2020). Together they allowed $8.5 billion in bonds for stem cell research.
The measure's own findings, which argue for it, say research needs a steady source of funding so it is not stalled by funding shortages.
The money
The Legislative Analyst (LAO) says repayment would cost $500 million to $600 million a year for about 20 years, about 0.25 percent of the General Fund. Adjusted for inflation, borrowing makes the total about 10 percent more than paying up front. Research revenue could offset part or all of it, but the LAO says the amount is uncertain and offsetting the cost could take decades. See the money chart for the latest filed totals.
Needs a simple majority (50% + 1) to pass Some measures need 55% or two-thirds of votes to pass. This one needs only a simple majority.Who bears the cost
State government (the General Fund, paid from general tax revenue)
The LAO says the General Fund cost to repay the bond would be $500 million to $600 million a year for about 20 years. That is about 0.25 percent of the General Fund budget. Interest makes the total about 10 percent more than paying up front, after inflation.
The strongest case for and against
Strongest case for
Supporters include the Alzheimer's Association, the Michael J. Fox Foundation and the ALS Association. They say immunotherapies are already curing cancers like melanoma, lung cancer and leukemia. They argue federal funding cuts are disrupting research, and Prop 38 gives steady funding. Supporters say Prop 38 is designed to pay for itself, because ten percent of any revenue from funded research must go to the state. The LAO says this revenue is uncertain but could be significant, and that offsetting the bond cost is also uncertain but could take decades. They also say at least half the money goes to cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer's research, that California patients get a 20 percent discount, and that it has a 2 percent cap on state administrative costs and independent audits.
Strongest case against
Robert M Kaplan, Ph.D., signed both the official argument against and the rebuttal to the argument in favor. Kaplan says the claim that Prop 38 will pay for itself is speculative. Kaplan argues bonds suit roads and schools, not research, because many studies never lead to products that sell. Kaplan says scientific review, not election campaigns, should set research priorities, and that conditions like mental illness also deserve attention. Kaplan says the state already faces a budget deficit. Kaplan says taxpayers would owe about $500 million a year for about 25 years; the LAO estimates $500 million to $600 million a year for about 20 years. Kaplan also says required discounts in California could push companies to sell in other states first.