San Francisco and California Ballot Backstory · Why is this on my ballot?
Prop H: summary
Parcel Tax to Fund Muni Operations
Mark your own choices here. You may bring this sheet into the voting booth.
A YES vote means
A new yearly tax on real estate (a parcel tax) would pay for Muni service from July 2027 through June 2042.
A NO vote means
No parcel tax would be created. Muni service would stay funded by fares and local, state and federal sources, as it is now.
Both ovals are empty on purpose. The choice is yours.
If it fails
Timing: from July 2027
SFMTA, the City agency that runs Muni, projects a budget gap of about $350 million a year starting in July 2027 without new money. If one or both transit tax measures fail, its published options include cutting up to 20 lines. These are options, not decisions.
Why it’s on the ballot now
Federal and state pandemic relief helped pay for Muni in recent years. The SFMTA's new budget includes none of it, and the SFMTA says that money has run out.
In February 2026, the SFMTA board reviewed a $307 million budget shortfall for 2026-27 and $344 million for the next year. A local parcel tax was one option staff listed.
To balance its 2026-27 budget, the SFMTA took a $200 million state loan in June 2026. It pays about $8 million a year in interest for the first two years, then about $30 million a year for ten years.
The SFMTA budget passed in April 2026 counts on two November ballot measures, a regional sales tax and a local parcel tax, along with ongoing efficiencies and cost savings, to close its gap.
The SFMTA says that without new money, it faces a shortfall of about $350 million a year starting July 2027, and would have to make big cuts to Muni service.
The money
The Controller estimates, based on current parcel data, that the tax would raise about $177 million a year starting in 2027-2028, growing with inflation. The total depends on how many exemptions are requested and granted. Running the tax could cost the City about $2 million to $3 million to set up, then about $4 million to $6 million a year, likely decreasing over time.
Needs a simple majority (50% + 1) to pass Some measures need 55% or two-thirds of votes to pass. This one needs only a simple majority.Who bears the cost
Homeowners, including condo owners
| Example | Pays now | Added | % of current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative example: single-family home or condo, 1,500 sq ft, assessed at $800,000, owner under 65 (bill at 2025-26 rates). | $10,269 a year | +$129 a year | +1.3% |
| Illustrative example: the same home, where an owner 65 or older before July 1 of the tax year lives as their main home and has applied to SFMTA for the exemption. | Not calculated | No change | Not calculated |
| Illustrative example: single-family home, 4,000 sq ft, also assessed at $800,000, owner under 65 (bill at 2025-26 rates). | $10,269 a year | +$549 a year | +5.3% |
Owners of apartment buildings (and, through pass-through, some tenants)
| Example | Pays now | Added | % of current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative example: six-unit rent-controlled apartment building, 6,000 sq ft, assessed at $2,000,000 (bill at 2025-26 rates). | $24,547 a year | +$444 a year | +1.8% |
Owners of business and other non-residential property
| Example | Pays now | Added | % of current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative example: office or retail building, 20,000 sq ft, assessed at $8,000,000 (bill at 2025-26 rates). | $95,379 a year | +$12,199 a year | +12.8% |
| Illustrative example: large downtown office tower, 500,000 sq ft, which reaches the $400,000 cap. | Not calculated | +$400,000 a year | Not calculated |
Passing the cost on
Landlords may pass up to half the tax, at most $65 per unit a year (rising with inflation), to rent-controlled tenants with rent set before June 1, 2027. Rent Board cost-based increases can't include it. Most other older units have a state cap: 5% plus inflation, up to 10%.
Example figures are calculated by code from the cited rates, not written by AI. How we calculate
The strongest case for and against
Strongest case for
Supporters include Mayor Lurie, the entire Board of Supervisors, the Labor Council, the Chamber of Commerce, the Tenants Union and Apartment Association. They say Muni is a lifeline for workers, seniors and students, and 40% of San Franciscans who work downtown take it. They say COVID relief that kept Muni running is gone. Without Prop H, they warn, service could be cut 30% with at least 20 bus routes eliminated. They say Muni has already cut 500 vacant jobs and acted to save $137 million a year. They say the largest properties pay the most, rent-controlled units pay at most $65 a year, and audits and citizen oversight keep money for Muni.
Strongest case against
Opponents, including the San Francisco Republican Party and the Business League, say they support Muni but not a 15-year tax with no binding conditions. They argue Prop H sets no efficiency or performance targets. They note its efficiency review is due in April 2028, after the tax starts, and goes only to the SFMTA's own board, and they say nothing requires the board to act on it. They say the tax is based on building size, not value, so a modest home can owe about the same as a far more valuable one of similar size nearby. Landlords can also pass part of it to renters. The Business League asks what happens when the next funding gap comes.