Bay Area region
Measure RTMRegional Transit Measure
Watch the backstory
Read the transcript
In June 2025, the Legislature authorized a 750 million dollar loan for Bay Area transit, but only if a later law approved it. That law was never enacted.
This November, Measure RTM asks for a sales tax for transit. Why now?
Relief money gave the SFMTA over 200 million dollars a year. A city report says it's not in the 2027 budget.
MTC cites an independent analysis that found BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit together face deficits of more than 800 million dollars a year, starting in 2027-28.
In 2025, a state law, SB 63, let voters in five counties approve this tax.
If Measure RTM fails, BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit have published plans or options to cut service, mostly from 2027.
BART's backup plan would cut train hours by about 63 percent from January 2027. These are the published plans and options.
The SFMTA's timeline puts approval votes in spring 2027 and cuts in fall 2027.
The SFMTA says Muni would get about 155 million dollars a year from this measure. Its budget also assumes money from Prop H, a local parcel tax on the ballot.
Opponents say the deficit stems from a manufactured crisis, and that a guaranteed blank check removes the push for agencies to reform.
The impartial analysis estimates it would raise about 980 million dollars a year across the five counties, for 14 years.
People pay it on taxable purchases: 1 percent in San Francisco, and half a percent in the other four counties.
It needs more than half of all votes in the five counties combined, not just San Francisco.
Illustrative example: a two-person household earning 129,700 dollars, the San Francisco area median, pays about 1,404 dollars a year in sales tax at today's rate.
Measure RTM would add about 163 dollars a year, if all shopping is in San Francisco. That leaves out cars; a car registered in San Francisco would also cost 1 percent more.
Backers turned in a petition. It was certified on July 1, 2026.
A YES vote creates the sales tax for 14 years.
A NO vote means no new tax, and transit agencies do not get this money.
Sources and the full analysis are at ballotbackstory.org.
Ballot Backstory. Why is this on my ballot?
Why is Muni asking again? · Length: 1:52
Read the transcript
In June 2022, a bond for Muni and street safety got 65 percent but needed two-thirds, so it failed.
Now Prop H seeks a tax for Muni, and Measure RTM a regional sales tax for Muni, BART and other Bay Area transit. Why again?
In 2024, voters passed a transit ride-hail tax, but a competing measure blocked it.
In 2025, the state allowed a vote on a regional sales tax. A 2026 state law then allowed up to 590 million dollars in loans to Muni, BART, Caltrain and AC Transit.
The SFMTA says pandemic relief that helped pay for Muni has run out.
Without new money, it faces a shortfall of about 350 million dollars a year from July 2027.
Prop H taxes property owners. The Controller estimates it would raise about 177 million dollars a year, depending on how many exemptions are granted. It needs over half the votes.
RTM, a five-county sales tax, would raise about 980 million dollars a year, the impartial analysis estimates. Of the money raised in San Francisco, about 63 percent goes to Muni and 29 percent to BART. It needs a majority of all five counties' votes combined.
The SFMTA's budget plan counts on both, which share the November 3 ballot.
Prop H got on the ballot by voter petition.
YES on Prop H creates a Muni parcel tax through June 2042. NO means none.
YES on RTM creates a 14-year transit sales tax. NO means no new tax.
Sources and the full analysis are at ballotbackstory.org.
Ballot Backstory. Why is this on my ballot?
What your vote does
A NO vote means
NO means no new transit sales tax. Rates stay the same, and BART, Muni, Caltrain and other transit agencies do not get this money. 3
Both ovals are empty on purpose. The choice is yours.
To prevent major service cuts to BART and other transit, avoid increased traffic, and reduce pollution by: Preserving BART, Caltrain, VTA, SamTrans, AC Transit, Muni, other transit for everyone, including workers, students, seniors, persons with disabilities; Supporting transit safety, cleanliness, affordability, reliability; Repairing targeted roads/potholes; Requiring financial transparency, oversight, accountability; shall the measure enacting a 0.5% (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara counties), and 1% (San Francisco) sales tax for 14 years generating approximately $980,000,000 annually, be adopted?
This is the exact wording from the official voter guide.
If it fails
Timing: from January 2027
If Measure RTM fails, BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit have published plans or options to cut service, mostly from 2027. BART's backup plan, if no new money comes, would cut train hours by about 63% from January 2027. Opponents say the deficit "stems from a manufactured crisis." 13202526284
- The SFMTA projects a Muni shortfall of about $350 million a year from July 2027, growing to $434 million by 2030. BART puts its ongoing deficit at $375 million to over $400 million a year. 131219
- BART's Board adopted a backup plan in February for use if no new money comes. Starting January 2027, BART would run three lines, with trains every 30 minutes, closing at 9 p.m. Fares and parking fees would rise 30%, and 600 workers would be laid off. 2019
- From July 2027, if possible, the plan aims for a 70% cut in service hours, counting the January cuts. It would close up to 15 stations or 25% of track miles. Reserves would delay closures six months. BART says it won't use its $285 million state loan if RTM fails. 2019
- The SFMTA lists options if one or both measures fail: cutting up to 20 Muni routes, doubling wait times on Metro, Rapid and frequent routes, and cutting evening service by up to 60%. Its timeline puts approval votes in spring 2027 and cuts in fall 2027. 2813
- Caltrain's scenario, if no other money comes, includes hourly service, no weekend service and closing over a third of stations. AC Transit projects 16% bus cuts and up to 300 layoffs from June 2027; a loan keeps current service until then. 2526
- The SFMTA says Muni would get about $155 million a year from this measure. Its budget assumes money from a local parcel tax on the ballot. The SFMTA estimates 700-900 positions could be cut if one fails, 1,500-2,100 if both fail. In July 2026, its operating reserve was $143 million. 272831
- In July 2025, the Controller's working group found that if no ballot measures pass, all the other options in its six packages, including service cuts and parking fees, would cover $222 million of a $320 million Muni gap (70%). It said cuts SFMTA already made could lower that gap. 8
- Opponents say the deficit "stems from a manufactured crisis." They argue that a guaranteed "blank check" takes away the push for transit agencies to reform. 4
Why it’s on the ballot now
Federal and state relief money gave Muni's agency, the SFMTA, over $200 million a year since FY24. A city report says this money is not in the FY27 budget. 8
MTC cites an independent analysis. It found BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit face deficits of more than $800 million a year. These start in fiscal year 2027-28. 6
For fiscal year 2026-2027, the SFMTA says a $200 million state loan in its budget closes a $307 million gap. The loan comes from up to $590 million that a 2026 state law (AB 117) authorized for Bay Area transit agencies. SFMTA staff also listed other one-time options, such as savings from past cost controls. The SFMTA projects its deficit will grow to $434 million by 2030. 12323534
In 2025, the Legislature passed SB 63. It created a five-county transit tax district and let its voters approve this sales tax. 3
How we got here
State emergency money for transit
California's 2023-24 state budget included $1.1 billion in flexible transportation funding to help keep transit running after pandemic losses. 11
Muni Funding Working Group
The SFMTA and the Controller's Office formed a working group. It met seven times through March 2025 on ways to close Muni's projected $320 million FY27 deficit. 8
$750 million loan authorized, not enacted
In June 2025, the Legislature authorized a $750 million short-term loan for Bay Area transit agencies, but only if later legislation approved it. That legislation was never enacted. 1433
SB 63 becomes law
SB 63 created the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, run by the same board as MTC. It lets voters there approve a transit sales tax, placed by the district or by petition. 36
SFMTA two-year budget
The SFMTA Board passed a two-year budget. The SFMTA says a $200 million state loan in its first year, fiscal year 2026-2027, closes a $307 million shortfall. 12
Measure qualifies for ballot
The petition for the Connect Bay Area Transit Initiative was turned in on May 26, 2026. It was certified for the November 3, 2026 ballot. 3
Muni shortfall projected
The SFMTA says it faces a yearly shortfall of about $350 million without new funding. The gap starts in July 2027. 13
Measure RTM: Regional Transit Measure
The money
The impartial analysis estimates the tax would raise about $980 million a year in the five counties. A December 2024 estimate made for MTC puts San Francisco's part at about $208 million a year at FY27 levels. The tax would collect for only part of FY27, because it starts April 1, 2027 by this guide's count. Of money raised in San Francisco, 62.87% goes to Muni and 29.14% to BART for operations. Road repaving is not allowed in San Francisco. 37530
- Amount
- About $980 million a year (five counties)
- How long
- 14 years (about April 2027 to March 2041)
- Who pays
- People pay it on taxable purchases in the five counties. It is collected much like the state sales tax. The rate is 1% in San Francisco and 0.5% in the other four counties. It does not count toward the state limit on local sales tax rates. Opponents say San Francisco's total sales tax rate would reach 9.625%. 34
Locked-in budget
The City Charter already sets a minimum General Fund amount for the SFMTA each year. The General Fund is its largest single funding source. If the tax passes, SB 63 requires BART, Muni, Caltrain and other operators to keep their existing operating funding, so the new money is meant to add to it. The law allows exceptions if MTC approves them. 86
Who bears the cost
People who buy taxable goods in the five counties
What they already pay
- San Francisco's sales tax rate is now 8.625%. That is the 7.25% state base, plus 0.5% for BART and 0.5% for the SF County Transportation Authority. It also has 0.25% for the SF Public Finance Authority and 0.125% for Caltrain. 3022
- The 7.25% state base is 6% for the state and 1.25% local. Part of the 6% goes to local public safety, health and social services funds. The 1.25% is 1% for city or county operations and 0.25% for county transportation. 2421
- Opponents say people already pay BART, Muni and Caltrain through sales taxes, property taxes and bridge tolls, plus fares if they ride. 4
If it passes
- Measure RTM adds a 1% sales tax in San Francisco. It adds 0.5% in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. It lasts 14 years, from April 1, 2027 by this guide's count. That would make San Francisco's sales tax rate 9.625%. 530
- State law does not tax most groceries, prescription medicine, or gas, power and water sent by pipe. Services and rent are not taxed. Opponents note that ready-made food, clothes, pet food and drugstore medicine are taxed. There is no extra break for seniors, low-income people or nonprofits. 2329430
- In this guide's examples, the tax adds about $127 yearly (0.20% of income) at $64,850 income, and $210 (0.08%) at $259,400. They use statewide IRS tables, assume all shopping is in San Francisco, and leave out cars. 30
| Example | Pays now | Added | % of current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two-person household earning $64,850 (50% of San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. 30 | $1,096 a year | +$127 a year | +11.6% |
| Two-person household earning $129,700 (San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. 30 | $1,404 a year | +$163 a year | +11.6% |
| Two-person household earning $259,400 (twice San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. 30 | $1,811 a year | +$210 a year | +11.6% |
Example figures are calculated by code from the cited rates, not written by AI. How we calculate
Promised and delivered
Regional Measure 3 (2018)
Promised
Higher tolls on seven state-owned Bay Area bridges would pay for a $4.45 billion list of highway and transit projects. It won 55% of the combined vote in the nine Bay Area counties, but not a majority in Contra Costa or Solano. 9
Delivered
Tolls rose $1 three times, in 2019, 2022 and 2025. The money sat in escrow during lawsuits, which ended in January 2023. MTC began handing it out in June 2023. 9
BART Measure RR (2016)
Who’s behind it
How it got on the ballot: Citizen petition
Backers turned in a petition with 306,288 signatures on May 26, 2026. A check found about 235,503 valid, more than the 187,119 needed. It was certified on July 1, 2026. 3
Where the support comes from
Placed by who endorsed it and who funded it, not by our opinion. How we place measures
Groups from both coalitions recommend Yes on Measure RTM: progressive coalition groups San Francisco League of Pissed Off Voters and Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club, and moderate coalition groups GrowSF and San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. The San Francisco Democratic Party, SEIU Local 1021 and SPUR also recommend Yes. The San Francisco Republican Party and San Francisco Taxpayers Association recommend No. This guide's filing data has no full totals for the committees on either side of Measure RTM, only a floor, not a total, of what some SF Ethics filers reported giving to the RTM campaign. 17161518
Endorsements
| Group | YES | NO | Neutral |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive slate | |||
| San Francisco League of Pissed Off Voters | Yes | ||
| Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club | Yes | ||
| Moderate slate | |||
| GrowSF | Yes | ||
| San Francisco Chamber of Commerce | Yes | ||
| Political parties | |||
| San Francisco Democratic Party | Yes | ||
| San Francisco Republican Party | No | ||
| San Francisco Green Party | No position | ||
| Labor | |||
| SEIU Local 1021 | Yes | ||
| Other groups | |||
| SPUR | Yes | ||
| YIMBY Action | Yes | ||
| San Francisco Women's Political Committee | Yes | ||
| Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club | Yes | ||
| Edwin M. Lee Asian Pacific Democratic Club | Yes | ||
| San Francisco Taxpayers Association | No | ||
Follow the money
Campaign finance reports for this measure aren’t in our data yet.
Campaigns file with the SF Ethics Commission and the California Secretary of State. We update daily until Election Day.
Related and competing measures
The strongest case for and against
Each side’s best argument, written as its supporters would make it. Neither is our view.
Strongest case for
Supporters include Mayor Daniel Lurie, Senator Scott Wiener and the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. They say transit faces deep cuts without this money. Muni could cut service by at least 30% and cancel at least 20 bus routes. It could end regular evening service and end cable car service. BART could close 15 stations, including Colma, San Bruno and South San Francisco. It could cut service by 70%. Caltrain could run one train per hour and stop on weekends. Supporters say more people would drive, making traffic and air pollution worse. They note large agencies must show cost savings to keep getting this money. The tax does not apply to rent, utilities, prescription medicines or most groceries. 4
Strongest case against
Opponents include Quentin L. Kopp of the San Francisco Taxpayers Association and Griffin Lee of ConnectedSF. They say the tax makes San Francisco less affordable. People would pay it on most things they buy, including prepared food, clothing and over-the-counter medicines. They say seniors, students, disabled and low-income residents are hurt most. They call it the largest sales tax increase in San Francisco history. The city's total rate would reach 9.625%. Its new rate is double the other counties' new rate. They say it would collect about $14 billion across five counties over 14 years. They argue BART and Muni are mismanaged, saying 539 BART and 338 Muni employees got pay and benefits above $250,000 in 2024. Lee says guaranteed money removes pressure for reform and wants fixes before funding. 43
Sources
Every fact on this page links to one of these sources.
- Official ballot question, Measure RTM (en edition), SF Voter Information Pamphlet, Nov 3, 2026, p. 52
- Vote threshold for Measure RTM, SF Voter Information Pamphlet, Nov 3, 2026, p. 52
- Impartial Analysis of Regional Measure RTM (Public Transit Revenue Measure District's Legal Counsel), SF Voter Information Pamphlet, Nov 3, 2026, p. 52-53
- Proponent's and opponent's arguments and rebuttals on Measure RTM, SF Voter Information Pamphlet, Nov 3, 2026, p. 54-55
- Legal text of Measure RTM, SF Voter Information Pamphlet, Nov 3, 2026, p. 56-60
- Governor Signs Bill Authorizing Bay Area Voters to Consider 2026 Transit Measure (MTC)
- SFCTA Board Item 5: SB 63 Regional Measure memo (July 2025)
- Muni Funding Working Group Final Report (SF Controller's Office, July 2025)
- Regional Measure 3 (MTC)
- BART Measure RR Bond Oversight Committee 2024 Annual Report
- MTC Approves Emergency Transit Operations Funding Plan from Senate Bill 125 (MTC)
- SFMTA Approved Budget FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28
- SFMTA Budget Planning - FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28
- Governor Signs Bill Authorizing Regional Transit Measure (Sen. Arreguín press release)
- SPUR: recommendations for the November 3, 2026 election
- KQED Voter Guide: Measure RTM (supporters and opponents listed)
- How endorsers line up on Measure RTM: this guide's coalition groupings (endorsement method 1.0, data as of 2026-10-27)
- Campaign finance filings as of 2026-10-28 (compiled by this guide from SF Ethics Commission campaign finance transactions (DataSF pitq-e56w); data/money/rtm-2026-11.json, main@0dcbec8)
- BART Funding Overview Factsheet (July 6, 2026)
- BART Board to discuss and adopt an Alternative Service Plan if new transit funding not identified (BART news)
- Detailed Description of the Sales and Use Tax Rate (CDTFA)
- CDTFA-823 Active District Tax Rates with Operative and Sunset Dates (effective 10/1/2026)
- Necessities of Life - Publication 61, Sales and Use Taxes: Tax Expenditures Fiscal Year 2023-24 (CDTFA)
- IRS 2025 Instructions for Schedule A (Form 1040), including Optional State Sales Tax Tables
- Caltrain Outlines Cuts to Come Without External Funding (Caltrain news)
- AC Transit Contingency Plan
- Bridging Our Budget Gap to Save Muni (SFMTA)
- SFMTA FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28 budget presentation (sfmta.com media 44535)
- The 2026-27 Budget: Comparing Options to Raise and Lower Taxes (LAO, March 2026)
- Cost examples for Measure RTM: this guide's calculations from the cited rates (ai/impact_costs.py)
- SFMTA Consolidated Budget FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28
- SFMTA FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28 budget document (sfmta.com media 44541)
- The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Transportation (LAO)
- MTC news: Financial Efficiency Review Phase One report (node 4043252)
- The 2026-27 California Spending Plan: Transportation (LAO)